There are twelve games left in the 2017 MLB season for the Yanks and the Sox. And as it stands, Boston has a three game cushion over the pinstripes…
Now three games may seem like a small amount, and I’d love to convince myself there’s a chance, especially with Boston playing a 4-game set with Houston to end the year… But I don’t think it’s there.
I’ll explain why… Here are who the Sox (left) & Yanks (right) have to round out the year:
First, let’s talk numbers. The Yanks record against their teams remaining is 17-15. The Sox are 20-15. However, the weighed winning percentage of the Sox remaining opponents is 51.1% – whereas the Yanks is 48.2%.
Sorry, got a little nerdy there… Basically, the Yanks have only a slightly easier 12 games left than the Sox.
The Astros COULD sweep the Sox – their overall record would show they maybe SHOULD, but that seems unlikely as the Sox went 2-1 in their earlier season series.
The Yankees COULD sweep the Blue Jays as Toronto has the 2nd worst record of the seven teams we’re looking at. But for some reason the Yanks struggle with them, as so far this season they’ve gone 6-7 against Joey Bats’ squad.
Here’s the blueprint of how the Yanks COULD win the division (and how the Sox COULD blow it) but I’d say this is a longshot:
Both teams fare the same against the O’s and Twins. Maybe the both win the next two games, maybe they split. But they’ll keep pace. Nine games left, 3 games behind.
Again, both teams fare the same against the Reds and Blue Jays. Maybe a sweep, maybe a 2-1 series win. But they keep pace again. Seven games left, 3 games behind. Damn.
The Sox will take the Blue Jays 2-1 or sweep… Let’s say 2-1. The Yanks take the one game they have against KC at home, and then go 2-1 against Tampa. Then (to align the schedules), Sox lose Game 1 of the Houston series. 3 games left for each, 2 games separating.
I think Houston takes 2-1 in these last 3, and the Yanks sweep the Blue Jays. They tie.
The “tiebreaker game” would be played in the Bronx based on the Yanks beating the Sox in the season series 11-8, and it’s entirely possible the Yanks win the division then and there.
Now, the scenario I describe is pretty realistic all the way until the end. The Yanks sweeping the Jays is possible, but not probable based on their current luck with the boys from Toronto. And my scenario also assumes the Sox, a damn good baseball team, would be losing four of their last five games, four of which will be played at Fenway.
Tough to see this playing out, but fun to dream.
October is Coming,