I know we’re mostly idiots here that just talk about Sanchez getting drilled in the nuts, or stupid ass cat accessories, and don’t talk too many nerduy statistics… Buuuut let’s change it up and get nerdy for a second here.

Yesterday, Big Fudge relayed the news to me that Sonny Gray was named starter for Game 1 of the ALDS against Cleveland, and CC would start Game 2 (Not Severino, like many were thinking after his 30 pitch outing in the Wild Card Game, and not Tanaka – the Yankees’ presumptive ace coming into the year).

Now, I don’t think there was a wrong decision to be made here. I think Sonny Gray can be an absolute STUD out there, and I KNOW watching CC all year that he is our veteran workhorse with some great stuff… But I wanted to get nerdy and look into tonight a little. If this intrigues you, great – if not, take a hike.

So what do these guys tonight look like, career-wise, against their opposition??

Sonny Gray Stats vs Indians

Trevor Bauer Stats vs Yankees

(Shoutout ESPN for the stats & shit)

It really is wild how close the two are to each other. Both of them having such close opposing batting averages of .239 (Gray) and .237 (Bauer) is pretty wild.

Gray has faced the Cleveland batters more often with 184 AB’s against them, while Bauer has 139 – but I don’t know what to make of that… So Cleveland has seen him more so do they have more of a track record and know HOW to hit him? Or, is it more impressive that over the longer term Gray has still experienced some decent success?

Gray’s (almost) 3:1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio also is soothing stat to know, versus Bauer’s (almost) 3:2.

However, my biggest concern tonight really is Sonny Gray. Listen, I’m confident the Yanks can get their runs. It really never is a worry when you have Gardner-Judge-Sanchez-Didi-Starlin-everyone-else-on-this-team… But this is the full Sonny story so far, as a Yankee:

Sonny Gray Game Log NYY Stats.PNG

August was GREAT… We knew we were getting an outing from him that would let up 2 or less runs. Kid was a machine.

Then in September, he was kinda hit or miss. In six outings, he let up 4 or more runs THREE times. That’s the flip of a freaking coin!!

With the bullpen pretty well exhausted from a 26 out night on Tuesday, we need the Sonny Gray from August (go 6 or 7 strong innings). But we cannot have not the last Sonny we saw… If he goes 4 2/3 and let’s up 6 runs – YEAH, we have problems. With only Warren, Schreve, Betances and Chapman (by my estimation) available tonight for our bullpen, we need our starter to go long – at least 5, hopefully 6  (effectively avoiding Schreve) and go 7-Warren, 8-Betances, 9-Chapman to win this thing.

I think he can do it. I really do. But lately it really has been a flip of a coin…

 

 

Heads or Tails Sonny??
@WCS_Taylor