Welcome back y’all to another edition of what some have called the best college football gambling preview blog on the internet! Okay, that may just be coming from my siblings, but it still counts! That said, as always we will start with the recap of what we learned last week.
- Coach O and “Kick Tracy” are starting something special this season in Baton Rouge,
- Georgia is very good at covering spreads (knock on wood),
- No mid-major’s will make the CFB Playoff thanks to Boise State,
- Vanderbilt is not as bad as we thought! (or Notre Dame is not that great?), and
- Madison, Wisconsin is mormon friendly! (Sorry badgers had to do it)
This week, we have some good news and we have some bad news. The good news, is that we have a couple of real quality top-20 match-ups and that we are reaching the part of the season where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. The bad news? After this week, we are already through a THIRD of the season, AND Urban Meyer is back. That combination is enough to just make you sick (but makes the Ohio State line look great no matter how much it grows). That said, let’s ignore the bad news and take a good long look at those match-ups.
Georgia at Mizzou at 12:00 on ESPN
LINE: UGA -14.5 O/U: 64.5
Cute hype video Mizzou… like I said above, the one thing we learned is this Georgia team is DAMN good at covering the spread, and they have been on a heater even though I picked against them last week (my bad, 33 points is a LOT). A lot of people are calling for the Dawgs to be on upset watch AGAIN this week, because of the great play of Drew Lock and the people who remember Georgia’s slow start defensively against this Mizzou offense last year…. NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS! Georgia’s secondary led by none other than Deandre “Who?” Baker, will be more than ready this time around and they will be prepared to limit this high-powered offense from Mizzou. On the other side of the ball? Bless your heart, Mizzou fans. Y’all just gave up how many points to Purdue? 37? Yeah, that’s cute. They will not be ready for the incredible size of Georgia’s line, or the talent at all the skill positions. Georgia will pour it on, and the worst part? They’ll continue to pour it on when Justin Fields comes in. We don’t rebuild, we reload, and the depth will prove that today.
FINAL BET: UGA -14.5 AND OVER 64.5
Texas A&M at Alabama at 3:30 on CBS
LINE: Bama -26 O/U: 59.5
This line has began to move a good bit in Texas A&M’s way and I don’t blame people throwing on A&M. Honestly, they played extremely well against a VERY good Clemson team, and beat the spread there, so why not have them beat the spread against this Alabama squad? Well, I’ll tell you why. Because this Alabama team may be one of the best offensively that Saban has ever had and Tua is the absolute TRUTH. Also, Alabama’s big “achilles heal” on defense is their secondary, and that can be exploited, however, I don’t think Kellen Mond will have time to exploit them, AND doesn’t have the arm to do so. I believe Mond it an amazing talent, but it’s tough to get good throws off when you have no time and a sub-par arm. Look for the Tide to come out and roll and look for them to pull off the cover. Also, hit that over, A&M will score some points (more than Ole Miss but not a lot) so that over will look NICE.
FINAL BET: Bama -26 and OVER 59.5
TCU at Texas at 4:30 on FOX
LINE: TCU -3 O/U: 48
People are going to be so high on Texas after they won so decisively against USC, but guess what everyone? USC AIN’T GOOD. I’m sorry to be the one to break the bad news to anyone out in southern California, but it’s the truth. Also, you know what that means, this Texas team will be over-hyped yet again going into a game. How’d that end up at the beginning of the year when they were overhyped and playing a Maryland team that just showed their true colors against Temple? OH RIGHT, they got smacked. Moral of the story here, don’t believe the hype for Texas, or the back thought that this will be a let down game for TCU after their loss versus Ohio State last week. They will be ready to play and they will take care of business.
FINAL BET: TCU -3
Wisconsin at Iowa at 8:35 on FOX
LINE: Wisconsin -3 O/U: 42.5
Poor Wisconsin fans had to watch as their team had an absolute shocker last week and suffered a loss at the hands of the Mighty Mormons from BYU at home. Because of that I have heard several analysts saying that this will be a good strong bounce back week for Wisconsin. The problem? They have to play in Kinnick Stadium. You know, in Iowa City, and the one that is responsible for heavy upsets every year including Ohio State being trounced by 31 last year. There is something special about Iowa City, and how other teams become crippled when playing there, ESPECIALLY in night games. You couple that with the fact that Wisconsin has a negative passing game, and you get this pick… Iowa +3. All. Damn. Day.
FINAL BET: Iowa +3
Stanford at Oregon at 8:00 on ABC
LINE: Stanford -2.5 O/U 56
This is the premier marquee match-up, and why shouldn’t it be? You got two undefeated top-20 teams going to battle, with the favorite rolling into a very hostile environment in Eugene, OR. On top of that, you have two incredible offensive talents and potential Pac-12 Player of the Year hopefuls in Justin Herbert and Bryce Love going toe-to-toe.
The real problem for me? While Oregon and Stanford are undefeated, they haven’t necessarily beaten anybody that is worth talking about, with Oregon’s wins coming against Bowling Green, San Jose State, and Presbyterian, and Stanford’s coming against UC Davis, San Diego State, and at home against USC (okay that one is decent even though I bashed USC above). So, I have to pick based on what I know, and what I know is Bryce Love has bounced back from a terrible first week, and that JJ Arcega-Whiteside is gunning to be the best receiver in college football. Additionally, I keep falling into that same feeling of “Oregon is too soft to be great.” Couple that with a hard nosed line from Stanford, and I have them taking this one.
FINAL BET: Stanford -2.5
And there you have it folks, some real solid games, loaded with excitement. As always, best of luck to your teams and your wallets, and Go Dawgs!