What’s up and welcome back to Week Four everybody, or as I like to call it, the week that has kept me on pins and needles every single day.
As I rightfully predicted (sick flex I know), last week’s lackluster showing with a whopping ZERO top-25 match-ups actually ended up being a great weekend of college football, as we got to see a ton of close games and three upsets of top 25 teams.
As always, we have to reflect upon last week, so let’s take a look to see we learned:
- Maryland was who we thought they were,
- Muschamp knows the spread and plays for the cover (that bastard),
- Transfer QB’s can’t stop lighting up the stat sheet (okay maybe just Hurts and Fields),
- Mike Leach doesn’t lose a battle of the best air raids, and
- Kyle Trask’s record of never starting a game in high school set him up perfectly to take over in crunch time for the Gators.
Now on to this week, which is shaping up to be a real juggernaut, with two top-15 match-ups, and another top 25 clash, which will be surely be a lot of fun.
Hopefully, I’m right about this week’s outlook and it makes me right for a second week in a row, putting me on a heater that’s a lot like the error-less JV Baseball streak that I went on freshman year of high school. Some say, it’s the best fielding that the world has ever seen, but that’s a story for another day. On to football!
11 Michigan at 13 Wisconsin – 12:00 on FOX
LINE: Wisconsin -3.5 – O/U: 44.5
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) September 21, 2019
Things are not looking great in Ann Arbor. Shea Patterson has been painfully average this year, which has led to some calling for backup Dylan McCaffrey to come in and take the starting role. Additionally, their last game against Army was piss poor and has everyone piling on the “Michigan sucks” train. Oh, and even worse, the Blue are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Everything is trending down for the Wolverines.
On the other side of things? Wisconsin is ROLLING. Jonathan Taylor is running all over the competition, and Jack Coan seems to have alleviated all of their problems at quarterback. This has allowed the Wisconsin offense to focus less on running the ball every single play and more on creating a well-balanced attack. Furthermore, Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 5-0 ATS in their last five played in Week 4. Trending up to say the LEAST.
Obviously, based on these trends, you’d assume that the Badgers would be easy money, right? NOPE, this is my “NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND” game of the week.
Sure, the Badgers have looked good, but “they ain’t played nobody PAWWWL!” Also, Michigan is due for a big bounce back week, and I have a lot of faith in this team proving it this week in Madison. It’s just something in my system, I can’t explain the feeling, but I’m all aboard that big blue train.
I’m bucking the trend and going with my gut…. Ride with me.
FINAL BET: Michigan +3.5
8 Auburn at 17 Texas A&M – 3:30 on CBS
LINE: TAMU -4 – O/U: 47.5
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) September 21, 2019
The new and improved Gus Malzahn with all of his swagger and play-calling ability is looking very confident as him and his Tigers head to God’s Country, Texas, a spot that is also known as College Station.
As someone who has been to College Station and is a big fan of everything the Aggies do, and also someone who is a huge hater on everything that is the Auburn “war eagles/tigers/how many mascots do you have?” I can assure you that I want nothing more than to see the 100,000 fan crowd in College Station eat Auburn alive, and for Jimbo and Kellen Mond to go off against this vaunted Tigers defense. The problem? These Aggies ain’t ready for that defense, and they ain’t ready for Big Nix Energy.
A&M proved a few things against Clemson which will rightfully apply here. First and foremost, they will almost certainly sell out against the run and force Auburn to beat them through the air. They did this against Clemson and held Travis Etienne to minimal yardage. The problem for them in that game? Trevor Lawrence is very good, and their offense couldn’t do a damn thing in Death Valley.
How does this translate to this game? Very well. Auburn will not be able to run the ball as well as they normally do, which is why they will rely on Bo Nix to get rolling. I’m assuming this leads to a lot of finicky plays, like RPO’s and short throws to build up Nix’s confidence, something Gus Malzahn dials up better than almost anybody in the country, and something they’ll need to execute well if they are going to walk out of Texas with a win.
I think that will happen. However, what I’m more interested in is if Kellen Mond shows up. As stated earlier, the A&M offense looked abysmal against Clemson. Additionally, Mond only has 5 TD’s with 3 interceptions through these first few weeks… It has not been pretty for the star who was supposed to be A&M’s chosen one and a sneaky good pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
I think that this defense will cause Mond’s struggles to continue, as they have built a very similar defense to what Clemson has built over in South Carolina. Because of this, Auburn will cover the spread and unfortunately they will stay undefeated.
Need more information to persuade you? Glad you asked! How about the fact that Auburn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, and the away team has one 6 out of the last 7 meetings these two teams have had.
Sounds pretty good to me. Put it on them Tigers.
FINAL BET: Auburn +4
15 UCF at Pittsburgh – 3:30 on ABC/ESPN 2
LINE: UCF -10.5 – O/U: 61
The former National Champion UCF Golden Knights are headed into the mighty city of Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers at Heinz Field. The problem for Pitt? They’re not the Steelers and UCF is really, really good.
Everyone is high on Pitt because they went into Happy Valley last week and took a lackluster Penn State team to the brink of defeat. Also, everyone is low on UCF because they all hate the Golden Knights for their fake national championship claim a few years ago, but none of that will matter when they line it up in the ‘Burgh.
You know what will matter though? The fact that Dillon Gabriel has come in as a freshman and has been SLINGING the ball all over the field, making other defenses look silly as the Knights are averaging almost 8 yards per play, something they will be looking to build on this week.
To add insult to injury, the Golden Knights are only giving up 2.77 yards per play on the other side of the ball, and 7 points per game, and Pittsburgh’s offense looks allergic to the endzone. I mean honestly, Pitt is averaging 17 points per game. Their offense is like the weird kid in fifth period who thinks he has game but doesn’t realize that all of the girls are laughing at his Kangol hat behind his back. Sorry buddy, you’re just never gonna score.
You put all of this together, and combine it with the fact that UCF is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and what do you get? You get yourself laying it down on the Golden Knights.
FINAL BET: UCF -10.5
7 Notre Dame at 3 Georgia – 8:00 on CBS
LINE: UGA -14.5 – O/U: 58
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) September 20, 2019
This is it. This is by far the biggest game of the weekend, and the biggest game of this early season, especially for a Dawgs fan like me, who’s boss is an Irish fan… shouts to Tayls!
Notre Dame President, John Jenkins, seemed to love the idea of a home and home against the Dawgs once the school’s started the discussions, and why shouldn’t he?
Based on historical reference, the last time that a Midwestern President sent a group of young men to battle in the state of Georgia it ended poorly for the Georgians and resulted in half of the state being burned to the ground (damn you, General Sherman).
This time around though? IT AIN’T HAPPENING.
Why do you ask? A new battle, the battle of the trenches, of course. You all saw how Notre Dame has been pushed around at the line of scrimmage time and time again this year. This is proven by the fact that they’re giving up 249 rushing yards PER GAME, and they have played against LOUISVILLE AND NEW MEXICO.
That’s sure to match up extremely well against a team that averages just under 300 rushing yards per game, and one that has one of the best offensive lines in the country…. NOT (sick burn, I know).
As for the other side of the ball, it’s going to be a lot of the same thing. Ian Book is one HELL of a quarterback, and I think if he played in that game in South Bend two years ago it would’ve been a much different situation. However, he did not, and this is not 2017. Additionally, the Irish offensive line looked really bad against Louisville and the Dawgs D is full of world beaters. It’s a huge mismatch.
Aside from these FACTS, some people are saying things like, “doesn’t it concern you that a lot of people are jumping on Georgia and taking them against the spread?” or “doesn’t Notre Dame’s underdog mentality scare you?”
To answer your question, yes, I was extremely nervous about that, because it seems like underdogs in college football always rise to the occasion, especially in big games like this.
BUT, it all changed when I was listening to the SDS Podcast and heard Uncle Chris Marler lead off with so much confidence about this spread. I think the exact phrase was “this line could jump to -20 and I would STILL take the Dawgs.”
That pep talk from him, mixed with a great deal of liquid courage has me all over that line. Go. Dawgs.
FINAL BET: Georgia -14.5
And there it is. I can assure you that this will be the first of many nerve-racking weekends for your boy, but that’s why we love the sport, and why we tune in every Saturday.
As always, best of luck to your teams and to your wallets, and Go Dawgs!