Oh, what’s that sound? Just the cracking open of your first beer of the day mixing with the sweet serenading of Grandpa Corso forgetting his lines on set.
Yes, that’s right we are back with Week 6, and we are looking down the barrel of a fully loaded weekend in College Football, and a weekend where the former National Champion University of Central Florida already has already received their second loss of the season.
Thankfully, even though the “champs” are out, there is a lot more of a reason to be hyped up and ready for this weekend. Don’t worry though, I won’t jump ahead too fast. As always, here’s the weekly reflection on what we learned last week:
- Mack Brown should never call a triple option again,
- Ohio State is a gambling LOCK thanks to an explosive defense and horrible competition,
- The Pac-12 is always a pack of mediocrity in which the top teams can’t separate,
- Tua is still Tua and Bama is still Bama, and
- Wisconsin will win games no matter how ugly their uniforms are.
Now on to this week, which is shaping up to be another excellent week of top ranked teams going at it, including three top-25 match-ups and plenty of upset potential elsewhere around the country. So, without further ado, let’s take a look!
14 Iowa at 19 Michigan – 12:00 on FOX
LINE: Michigan -4 – O/U: 47.5
Come out fighting.
Come out punishing.
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 4, 2019
The Hawkeyes are flying to Ann Arbor in a match-up which I have titled my “Are they good” game?
Sure, Iowa has played extremely well throughout the beginning of the year, during which they haven’t lost a game, but “They ain’t played nobody Pawwwwwl.” Meanwhile, Michigan has stumbled out of the gate, but still sit at 3-1 with their only loss to a high-powered and very good Wisconsin team. This game will allow us to get a better sense of which of these teams is for real, and which is a bunch of frauds.
The tough part about this game to me is how evenly matched they are, and how much I HATE four point spreads. For instance, the Iowa offense is averaging around 28 points per game, while the Michigan defense is allowing almost 26 per game. Iowa is averaging 5.63 yards per play, and Michigan is giving up 4.96 yards per play. On the other side of the ball? Iowa’s defense is giving up 5.08 yards per play, and Michigan’s offense is averaging…. 5.08 yards per play. It is quite the anomaly.
So what separates these two teams today? I think it’s going to come down to line play, and to the Hawkeyes ability to win the battle of the trenches. I also have very little faith in Shea Patterson to lead this Wolverines team to a victory late in a close game, leaving me to think that if this game is close late, I’d rather have the points on my side.
Need more to help you get over that hump and to go with the Hawkeyes? How about the fact that Michigan is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, and Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in October and 4-2 in their last six games at Michigan. Those are trends that are too good to pass up. Gotta go with the Hawkeyes.
FINAL BET: Iowa +4
7 Auburn at 10 Florida – 3:30 on CBS
LINE: Auburn -2.5 – O/U 48.5
— Auburn Tigers (@AuburnTigers) October 5, 2019
The Tigers roll into the Swamp and look to battle off the heat, 90,000 drunk Floridians, and a pack of Gators that have seemingly overcome every single obstacle in their way this year.
Seriously though think about what Florida has done and overcome in this short season:
- Down big to an in-state rival who is hyped up to be “back?”
- Don’t worry, the Gators flip the switch and win. Lose your starting quarterback while down 11 on the road? No problem, Kyle Trask comes in and leads the team to victory.
This is all not even mentioning the fact that the Gators defense ranks at the top of the SEC in basically every major category, and they get back a key asset in Zuniga this week. Things are trending up for Florida.
On the other side, a new and rejuvenated Gus Malzahn and the Tigers have just straight up dominated everyone since they had a last-second win against Oregon in Week 1. Big Nix energy is taking over the state of Alabama, and their defense is looking scary good as they are stifling everyone they play, almost matching Florida completely.
This tight game has such a similar feel to when LSU and Florida played last year, and the Gators were also home dogs. Most people felt that the Tigers would roll into Florida and win huge last year, and plenty of analysts are calling for a similar result this year. The problem? That wasn’t the result last year, as the Gators rolled over those bayou bengals, something they look to repeat here today.
Truthfully, with a game this close, I don’t like betting the line, so I would go a different route and bet the under.
Why so confident in the under you ask? Well, besides the fact that these two defenses are the real deal, the total has gone under in five of the last seven games between these two teams AND the total has gone under in six of the last seven games Auburn has played in week six.
I like those odds, and I like the under.
FINAL BET: UNDER 48.5
25 Michigan State at 4 Ohio State – 7:30 on ABC
LINE: Ohio State -20 – O/U: 49
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 3, 2019
I feel like it’s becoming a weekly occurrence where I discuss how good Ohio State has been, and I discuss how dominating they are against these lifeless opponents.
Honestly, it is scary how great they have been, and I am increasingly of the belief that Justin Fields was developed in a lab for the sole purpose of running this Ohio State offense. He has been such a perfect fit, and he seemingly can do no wrong, as he is letting loose all over these poor Big Ten defenses, and looking more and more like a Heisman finalist each week. I fully expect this to continue this week, and expect the Buckeyes to roll all over Michigan State.
Some are skeptical of this game, because of the fact that Ohio State and Michigan State are each 5-5 ATS against each other in their last 10 meetings, and because in past years Michigan State has played Ohio State extremely well, but these two teams are far different than the teams of the past. For instance, Michigan State can’t score points anymore, and this Ohio State team has a defense that doesn’t give up points. On the other side, Michigan State has played well on defense, but against uninspiring offenses. They ain’t played Justin Fields, and they ain’t ready for that smoke, leading me to believe you have to go with the Buckeyes.
Want some more of that analytical breakdown you all love? Okay, how about the fact that Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against an opponent in the Big Ten, and that they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 6.
Additionally, Michigan State is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a Big Ten opponent…. Yeah, Ohio State looks good to me.
Hammer that line for those Buckeyes!
FINAL BET: Ohio State -20
And there you have it folks. Another great weekend of football, and another chance to enjoy the greatest sport and the greatest stadium atmospheres ever.
As always, best of luck to your teams and to your wallets, and Go Dawgs!