Hey y’all. Do you feel that feeling in the air? That crisp cool breeze of Fall? No, I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about that feeling of having FOUR top-25 match-ups in ONE weekend. That’s enough to make Grandpa Corso half lit without even hitting his old cough medicine (though he probably will be hitting it all day).
You can guarantee that this type of uplifting and sensational type of weekend will lead to your boy getting into tons of degenerate shenanigans, and making horrible, horrible decisions, but as always, we can’t jump ahead before we reflect on what we learned last week, which was:
- Bo Nix really is a true freshman,
- Jonathan Taylor is a running machine who will just keep churning out TD after TD,
- Ohio State will just keep on rolling regardless of what the #FakeNews media thinks,
- Joe Burrow isn’t going anywhere in this Heisman race, and
- You can stick a fork in UCF, cause they’re officially dead.
Now that we’ve got all that behind us, we can move on to this LOADED week, which is going to have non-stop rivalry action from noon until bedtime. It is sure to leaves us smiling, unless of course your team loses…. Let’s get that bad thought out of our minds though and look at these lines!
6 Oklahoma vs 11 Texas – in Dallas, TX – 12:00 on FOX
LINE: Oklahoma -10.5 – O/U: 75.5
WARNING: May displease Sooners fans. pic.twitter.com/SHHMjjCxdA
— Longhorn Network (@LonghornNetwork) October 9, 2019
The Red River Rivalry (aka the Red River Shootout before people got all politically correct), is a storied tradition that we look forward to year after year. And why wouldn’t you? Fewer games have harder hits and bigger thrills than when the Sooners roll into Texas and play this “neutral site game” in Dallas.
This year, this game has even more allure than usual as Oklahoma looks to have a Heisman contender for the third straight year, and looks like they are primed for yet another run to the College Football Playoff (where they inevitably get pointed out as frauds). And on the other side of the field, we have a solid Texas team that took the eventual SEC West Runner-Up to a close game at home, and has repeatedly complained about the use of a certain hand signal that they just can’t get over (HORNS DOWN BABY).
Okay, okay, okay, maybe I should stop picking on both of these teams, and I especially mean that when talking about Texas, and you know why? Because Texas has Sam Ehlinger and a great offense, all of which have proven themselves against a top notch defense in LSU. They also have Tom Herman, who has an incredible 13-3-1 record ATS when being an underdog since his tenure at Houston started. Additionally, under Herman’s leadership, Texas is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games. You mix these together and it means that Texas has the ability to make some real noise in this game, which will inevitably decide who finishes on top of the Big 12.
Sure, Oklahoma is favored by 10.5, but that doesn’t mean anything in this game, which has been a toss-up over the past 10 years, and has seen Texas pull off the upsets even when they were ABYSMAL under Charlie Strong. That history doesn’t bode well for the Sooners
That not enough of a stat? How about the fact that Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Texas? Yeah, that’s a pretty size-able trend that I see continuing this weekend. It’s just too good to pass up, throw them Horns!
FINAL BET: Texas +10.5
1 Alabama at 24 Texas A&M – 3:30 on CBS
LINE: Alabama -17.0 – O/U 61
The Tide heads into College Station with one thing on their mind, continuing Saban’s streak of dismantling teams that are led by coaches who started under his tutelage (in case you forgot he’s still undefeated in that category, so, yeah, kind of a big deal).
Most people will freak out from the beginning, as this game will start out pretty close. However, that’s because Bama always comes out of the game sluggish, and because, if we learned anything from A&M’s tape against Clemson, they will sell out completely to stop the run and force Bama to turn to their throwing game to try and pick apart their talented secondary.
This was successful against Clemson, as it shut down Travis Etienne (for the second straight year), and led to Trevor Lawrence feeling pressure and making some horrible mistakes. The problem with that strategy against Bama though? Tua Tagvoiliofnwalefna is the best quarterback in the country, and he will prove that when given the ability to throw the ball a ton throughout this game.
Also, on the other side of things, they don’t fare well for A&M. Sure, Kellen Mond is a good quarterback, but outside of games against high school teams this year, Mond has looked mediocre at best, and this offense looks like its allergic to the endzone.This included getting shutdown by Clemson and Auburn (for most of the game until desperation set in). Hell, this A&M team looked average against ARKANSAS. You know, the team that lost to SAN JOSE STATE.
Yeah, the Tide will roll in this one, and if you need more fuel to the fire, here are some juicy nuggets for you…. Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against SEC opponents, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 7. Alabama on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in Week 7.
Roll Tide, Roll.
FINAL BET: Alabama -17
10 Penn State at 17 Iowa – 7:30 on ABC
LINE: Penn State -3.5 – O/U: 42.5
Last week I was all in on Iowa against Michigan. Not only did I think that Iowa would do a great job to shut down the Michigan offense, but I continuously heard how great this Iowa quarterback was, to the point that I talked myself into thinking that he would dominate the Wolverines…. That clearly didn’t happen.
Seriously, I can’t think of many times I have been more let down in my life, and I’M A GEORGIA FAN. It was an absolutely pitiful display by the Iowa offense, which I fully expect to continue in this match-up against a Penn State defense which is giving up less than 8 points per game.
Sure, Penn State hasn’t played many key opponents besides a Pittsburgh team that knocked off the former national champion UCF Golden Knights, but aside from that game, they have done exactly what you expect a good team to do against mediocre opponents, as they have dominated. This includes going into Maryland and playing against the rowdiest Maryland crowd of all time and coming out with a 59-0 win.
Iowa on the other hand, has been horrific on offense, and have been largely shut down in multiple games, including one against their in-state rivals in which they only put up 18 points. This is a trend I expect to continue against this very solid Penn State defense.
Additional trends I expect to continue? How about the trend of Penn State being 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Iowa? Sounds good. What about Iowa being 2-5 in their last seven games against Big Ten Conference opponents? Yep.
Gotta roll with it, go with them nittany lions!
FINAL BET: Penn State -3.5
7 Florida at 5 LSU – 8:00 on ESPN
LINE: LSU -13.5 – O/U: 55
A Tiger moves quietly.
He’s never more quiet than the moment just before he attacks… pic.twitter.com/wrrB28hrbx
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) October 10, 2019
Well, would you look at that. My jorts wearing bretheren from South of the Georgia border are all excited again after a HOT start, which included their defense committing filthy and unspeakable crimes against a freshman quarterback last week. Sorry Bo Nix, I’m sure you’re a decent enough kid, but Florida made you look like a rag doll.
The good news about this start from Florida? Absolutely nothing, unless you had the under last week, like I advised (easy money baby). The bad news about this start from Florida? They’re about to have a VERY rude awakening in Baton Rouge.
Honestly, I’m not just hating on Florida here. I think Kyle Trask has been a perfect fit for Dan Mullen’s system, and that he has done an amazing job filling in. I also think this Florida defense is one of the top five defenses in the nation, and I am genuinely nervous for the force they will bring into Jacksonville. However, there is nothing look going into Death Valley at night and having to deal with 100,000+ drunk ass Cajuns screaming at you in multiple languages (English, French, creole, and illiterate). Trask and this offense will not be ready for that, and they will not be able to respond as well as they’ll need to, to gut this one out.
Additionally, this offense ain’t Auburn’s offense, because they match up so much better. First off, Auburn’s run first defense, and tendency to throw stupid screen passes is great unless you play a team that dominates the run on every single play. LSU on the other hand, has this guy named Joe Burrow, and he has been a dominant quarterback who leads the SEC in almost every single category, including most horns thrown down.
Even adding more to this, the trends are looking great for LSU. This is because the Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games played against an SEC opponent, AND they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in October. Florida, is only 2-4 ATS in their last six games against SEC opponents. Everything is trending for the Bayou Bengals. Hold that Tiger!
FINAL BET: LSU -13.5
There it is, a preview to the loaded weekend of hard hits and exciting finishes, both of which we are sure to have in these games.
As always, best of luck to your teams and to your wallets, and Go Dawgs!