Hello and welcome back to another great weekend with some excellent college football to watch.
This weekend is especially great for your boy, because I’ll be in the middle of the most nerve-racking cocktail party you could ever imagine.
But, before we get into all of that, you all know that we must always reflect upon what we have learned from last week, which wasn’t a lot of good stuff for people obsessed with the Big 12, but let’s take a look:
- Ohio State is very much the real deal,
- Oklahoma is gonna Oklahoma,
- Notre Dame looks like a bunch of frauds,
- Texas is no where near back, and
- Arizona State is who we thought they were
And there you have it, a crazy week to reflect upon, and a terrible one for the Big 12, but now it’s time to move forward, on to the games!
22 Kansas State at Kansas – 3:30 on FS1
LINE: Kansas State -5 – O/U: 55
The Cats and Hawks are meeting once again in the annual “Sunflower Showdown” as they fight it out for the esteemed “Governor’s Cup,” something every young boy in Kansas grows up hoping to watch in person while attending either institution on a basketball scholarship.
For the Cats, they return to action after their stunner last week where they beat Oklahoma in a slugfest 48-41. The funniest part is they were up by 20 with nine minutes left and Oklahoma was an illegal touching call away from a real shot at tying the game up. What’s this tell you? Nothing we didn’t already know. There is no defense in the Big 12, and there never will be.
As for Kansas, they’ve also had quite the resurgence recently (thanks to Les Miles), as they have a few wins including wins against power 5 opponents (something they hadn’t done in a long time) and even had a close game against the “mighty” Longhorns from Texas.
That said it’s still too early for this to truly be Kansas’s year to take the mighty Governor’s Cup out of its home in the Little Apple.
Why do you ask? Well, maybe because Kansas’s defense hasn’t had quite the resurgence and they’ve relied heavily on their offense in every game they’ve been in close. This is summed up by Kansas’s average of allowing 32 PPG and almost 500 YPG. For reference, the Kansas State is much more efficient and gives up less than 19 PPG. Still a high average, but if I’m picking between the two in a 5-point spread, I’m going with the defense that knows how to make a stop.
Need more? Well the trends also go in State’s favor here, as Kansas State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Kansas, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. As for Kansas, they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in Week 10.
Gotta stick with those Cats!
FINAL BET: KANSAS STATE -5
8 Georgia vs 6 Florida in Jacksonville – 3:30 on CBS
LINE: UGA -6 – O/U: 45.5
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 1, 2019
A pack Dawgs are headed south for a fight against a whole bunch of gators. Is this a Mike Vick dog training scenario? No, this is the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party!
This one is huge as it is for all the marbles in the SEC East. The winner goes on to Atlanta, and the loser goes home to enjoy another season of mediocrity.
For Georgia, it has been quite a scramble lately. Not only have fans outwardly booed the anemic offense and called for the consistent firing of James Coley, but it looks like confusion, stress, and maybe even nervousness has set in to this team which allowed complacency to cost them a game at home against the COCKS a few weeks ago.
For Florida, it has been just the opposite. Their defense has looked phenomenal as they have given up under 15 PPG this year and have played several great offenses. Additionally, they have had a run that included a close game against LSU in Death Valley and a huge win against a top-ten Auburn team in the Swamp.
I’m a firm believer that this game will be very close and that it will come down to this battle in the trenches. The scary thing is that Georgia has looked like they can’t win a battle there recently, while Florida has dominated that game AND they bring back Zuniga and Greenard from injury this week, making that front seven even better.
As for the trends, they are interesting in this match-up. Florida is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games against UGA (proving how tight these games have been), but they are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Georgia on the other hand is just 2–4 ATS in their last six games.
Not looking good for the Dawgs in any aspect, so I have to go gators with the points, even if it brings me immense pain.
FINAL BET: FLORIDA +6
Ole Miss at 11 Auburn – 7:00 on ESPN
LINE: Auburn -19 – O/U: 53
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 1, 2019
The Rebels are looking to be whistling Dixie in the state of Alabama for the first time in a while, but the Big Nix Energy of the Tigers is looking to keep them in check.
It’s very funny to me how this game has shifted, because in previous years this game would have two of the best offenses in the country on display, and the over was a mortal lock. This year however, we have two offenses who can’t seem to really get things going in a way that the fan bases have come to expect, but two defenses that are just playing miles better than anyone thought they would.
For Ole Miss, it still means giving up 27 PPG but they usually averaged A LOT more. Also, their offense has been abysmal, which has led to their defense having to be on the field for way more time than usually necessary and inflating these numbers (it also doesn’t help that Alabama dropped 60 on them).
For Auburn, it means only giving up 17 PPG and making great offenses look beatable (like they came close to doing against LSU last week). I expect them to impose their will on Matt Corral and the Ole Miss offense, and fully expect this to be a low scoring game for the Rebels.
I also think that Ole Miss’s D is much worse than LSU’s and expect Bo Nix to build off of his performance last week and to put up some solid numbers today.
Additionally, the trends are GREAT for Auburn, as they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs Ole Miss and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is just 5-13 ATS in last 18 games.
19 points is nothing, to with the weagle boys today.
FINAL BET: AUBURN -19
And there you have it, the preview to yet another amazing weekend where we get more and more college football. As always, best of luck to you and to your wallets, and Go Dawgs.