Hello and welcome back everybody,
I’m checking in on another epic college football weekend, but have to admit your good friend Miller is a bit fuzzy this morning as he may or may not have had one too many drinks involving a healthy amount of Crown Royal… We all know, it’s Hot Toddy season, so I can’t be blamed for those decisions.
Thankfully, I have some time to collect myself for the rest of the blog while we take a look back/reflect on what we learned last week:
- Just when you think a Power 5 team might sneak in the Playoff they will prove they don’t belong,
- The SEC East still will be determined in Athens,
- Even when they show promise Notre Dame is a sad and broken team,
- Baylor is still undefeated, and
- Meaningless rankings after Week 10 will always get people pissed off.
Quite a good week last week, and one that is allowing me to drive my hopes up once again, which will ultimately lead to a disastrous and painful collapse once the Dawgs inevitably let me down for the 27th straight year.
But before we have to worry about all of that, let’s look at the games ahead of us today!
4 Penn State at 17 Minnesota – 12:00 on ABC
LINE: Penn State -6.5 – O/U: 47.5
Oars in the water. pic.twitter.com/1CQJng2iKX
— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) November 4, 2019
The Golden Gophers are partying like it’s 1960, and there’s only one man who deserves credit for this program doing things we haven’t seen since then, PJ Fleck.
Fleck is a phenomenal coach who is doing things at Minnesota that quite frankly I never saw coming. If we’re being honest, when he took the Minnesota job I thought he was stupid, now here I am eating crow and thinking how strange it is to see Minnesota in a meaningful game in November.
On the other side, we all know what James Franklin brings to the table. He is a great recruiter and one of the best motivators in the country, and it shows as his Nittany Lions have beaten their opponents by more than 28 points per game this year. This is all thanks to Franklin but also in part thanks to their offensive production, which has gotten more than 420 (nice) YPG and has scored more than 38 PPG. I guess Sean Clifford was the right person to lead this offense!
Everything is pointing to this game being a tight one, especially since these teams are each 1-1-1 ATS in their last three games against each other… However, given the fact that Fleck’s defense gives up 20 PPG, and their toughest opponent besides Purdue has been Georgia Southern (#HailSouthern), I don’t see this match-up being favorable for the Gophers, and actually see the Lions pulling away and winning by a couple of scores.
FINAL BET: PENN STATE -6.5
2 LSU at 3 Alabama – 3:30 on CBS
LINE: Alabama -6 – O/U: 63.5
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 8, 2019
Game of the week. Game of the year. Game of the Century. I don’t care what you call it, I am extremely excited to see what happens down in Tuscaloosa today. Truthfully, I think it is going to be an absolute cage match. Regardless of the outcome, the energy is going to be incredible, the trash talk will be over the top, the hits will be painful, and Joe Burrow will be electric.
The good news for LSU is that this offense is the type of offense that usually gives Nick Saban and company fits. The mix of pro-style and air raid has proven to work, as it is the reason that Ole Miss was able to snag a few wins against Saban under Swag Kelly, Clemson has been able to regularly beat them, and why Johnny Manziel was also so successful. I expect them to have some great success on offense today and to break their touchdown-less streak that they currently have against the Tide.
The bad news for LSU is that one of the greatest motivators and the best coach in college football history is going into this game with a chip on his shoulder because they are ranked behind LSU, and because a healthy amount of the media is siding with the Tigers. Saban is going to have them boys ready to lock the gate and pick a fight, while the crowd is going to be a crowd of 100,000 drunk and obnoxious Tide fans screaming Dixieland Delight and a plethora of four letter words that will rock the Cajuns to their core.
As for the trends, while LSU is 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against an SEC opponent, they are only 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against the Tide. Additionally, the Tide is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played in Week 11.
Gotta go with them Roll Tide boys today.
FINAL BET: ALABAMA -6
18 Iowa at 13 Wisconsin – 4:00 on FOX
LINE: Wisconsin -9 – O/U: 38.5
When you add a trophy to the game, it means that much more.
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) November 9, 2019
What is 75% vowels and 100% awesome? Iowa, at least it is according to some sign I saw on Gameday once, and based on the continued success that Coach Kirk has had in Iowa, I can’t say I disagree. There really must be something in the water.
As for the other side, the Badgers’ season has felt anything but awesome, as they already have two losses in what looked to be an insanely promising year that had some ready to put them into the CFB Playoff.
Unfortunately for the Badgers that just isn’t the case, BUT they still have a great shot at winning the B1G West which starts today, and is driven by their incredible defense. This Wisconsin squad has given up less than 12 PPG and allowed less than 225 YPG as well. They also are averaging almost two turnovers per game, which they have done a great job of turning into points.
As for Iowa though, we can’t overlook their defense which has also been phenomenal and only gives up 265 YPG and less than 11 PPG. You put these two together on the same field and you’re guaranteed to see some CLASSIC B1G football. You know, run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, punt the ball. Over, and over, and over again. It is an incredible throwback to the days of the early 1900’s but something you just have to enjoy.
This all leads me to believe that the under is the way to go. I know what you’re thinking though, “C’mon Miller, 38.5 is so low, it has to go over!” Well, the total has gone under in six of Iowa’s last seven games. Meanwhile, the total has gone under in five of Wisconsin’s and in ALL of Wisconsin’s last five games, most of which had extremely low Over/Under lines.
To me this is a no brainer, bet against those points and hammer that under!
FINAL BET: UNDER 38.5
And there you have it, another weekend filled of fun and joy, and another step closer to finding out how this season will shake out. As always, best of luck to all of you and to your wallets, and of course, Go Dawgs!