Hello and welcome to conference championship week.
The time when we finally find out what the Playoff Committee thinks of every team and we see what the makeup of the Playoff will be.
This week, as usual, is full of great match ups and the potential for some really fun games to watch, but first, we must always reflect on what we learned last week.
- No Urban but Michigan still can’t beat Ohio State,
- Big Nix Energy can win you an Iron Bowl,
- Wisconsin still owns the Big Ten West
- LSU is every bit as good as we’ve thought they were, and
- Bedlam doesn’t always score a million points anymore.
Now with that out of the way, let’s look at these lines!
7 Baylor vs 6 Oklahoma at 12:00 at AT&T Stadium on ABC
LINE: Oklahoma -8.5 – O/U: 64
The strive for 5️⃣ continues at Jerry World
Trailer ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/Nrkc969s6c
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) December 6, 2019
The Bears and Sooners boom there way into Jerry’s World for a chance to take home some hardware and have a chance to be in the College Football Playoff.
For Oklahoma, these Big 12 championship trophies are becoming as frequent as their Heisman trophies, and for those of you living under a rock and/or not having no communication with any Sooner fan in the past two years, they have one a lot of those lately.
For Baylor, this championship game means just a bit more than it does to Oklahoma, as this is their first shot at being back in the national spotlight since their huge scandal a few years back. Art Briles is a gigantic scumbag, and so is anyone involved in the Baylor situation, BUT it is pretty neat to see Matt Rhule’s ability to bring this program back to prominence.
As for what to expect on the field from Oklahoma, it’s a whole hell of a lot of what we have known for the past few years. This Oklahoma team (yet again) is very focused on the offensive side of the ball, and they are very good at executing on that main focus. How good? Just 44 points per game and over 550 YPG good…. Yep, that’ll do. On the other side of the ball, like previous years, they are giving up a whole lot of yards, but this team has been able to do things just a bit different as they have limited the amount of points they give up (something they did well in the second half of their game against Baylor earlier this season).
Baylor, on the other hand, has returned to their old style and flair from times past. This includes an offense which averages over 36 points per game and almost 450 YPG. Sure, that is a bit lower than the Sooners, but it is nothing to scoff at. Their defense also compares extremely well to Oklahoma but is giving up even less points at under 19 per game. Additionally, this team will be all kinds of fired up as they come into Dallas and seek to gain some revenge on their blown 28-3 lead (WOOF). I expect this to fuel one hell of a game from the Bears.
Additionally, the trends point to good things for the Bears, as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in their last five. All things considered, it’s a good look for the Bears.
FINAL BET: BAYLOR +8.5
4 Georgia vs 1 LSU at 4:00 at Mercedez-Benz Stadium on CBS
LINE: LSU -7 – O/U: 55.5
Let there be no doubt who this moment belongs to… pic.twitter.com/FZn4uezs9c
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) December 5, 2019
Pins and needles. Pins and f*cking needles are what I will be on throughout this entire game. To be honest, I’m shocked this line is only 7 points. Everyone and their mom think that Georgia will lose this game and that LSU will just roll through Atlanta on their way to the College Football Playoff (in which they’d probably go… back to… Atlanta), and I can’t say I blame them.
Listen, this Georgia team has been extremely good all year (except against those damn Cocks). They average over 32 points per game and 420 (nice) yards per game. If you told me that at the beginning of the year, I’d have said that Georgia was going to dominate on their way to a national title.
This is especially true considering their defense has put up absolute NUMBERS this year. Under 11 points per game and around 250 yards per game in the SEC? Hell yeah, those are some junkyard dawgs and that’s my MF’ing defense.
The problem though is that Jake Fromm has not looked himself in a very long time. Whether it’s overthrowing and missing receivers on short throws, checking down when you have a man open deep, or even just mental errors, he has not looked himself this year. You mix that with the fact that you have an injured Cager and Swift, AND a suspended George Pickens for the DUMBEST DECISION EVER, and you end up with a whole lotta uncertainty for the red and black.
Further, LSU has looked incredible from start to finish this year. They went into Texas and dominated. They went into Tuscaloosa and put up 55 points. They were put to a tough test against Auburn and won that too.
This is all in part to Joe Burreaux and that incredible LSU offense, which has scored more than 48 points per game and 560 yards per game IN THE SEC. Think about that for a second. The best damn conference in the country when it comes to defenses and you put up those numbers. Nothing has slowed them down, and I’m not sure anything ever will.
Their defense, though, gets a lot of flack for being this horrifically bad defense and it’s just not true. Sure, LSU is known for a suffocating defense that allows minimal yardage at best, but this team has still only given up 22 points per game. Sure, it’s a bit high, but considering how fast they score and how much time their defense is on the field it’s not bad by any means.
That said, I think James Coley and Georgia know that they will have to gameplan well and put up some points if they expect to win an SEC Championship, and because of it I expect them to show us some moments of magic in this game.
Additionally, while I think Georgia keeps it close, I think LSU’s offense is unstoppable. This is proven by the fact that the over has hit in 10 of LSU’s last 14 games (including seven of their last eight games against Georgia).
This explosiveness, the tendency to hit the over, and the Georgia offense looking to put up bigger numbers leads me to believe you have to go with the over here.
God bless the points.
FINAL BET: OVER 55.5
23 Virginia vs 3 Clemson at Bank of America Stadium at 7:30 on ABC
LINE: Clemson -28.5 – O/U: 57
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) December 6, 2019
Osama Bin Dabo is back at it again with his shade being thrown all over the SEC. We get it, Dabo. You get to beat the hell out of South Carolina every year and beat up on a bad A&M team this year. That’s like bragging about being a grown man and fighting against middle schoolers every year and winning.
“Every year I get older, and they stay the same age.”
Biases aside though, Clemson has a lot of hate in their hearts and have been playing with a chip on their shoulder. Because of their horrifically bad strength of schedule, they have been able to use this and to take this out on the piss poor ACC teams they have the honor of facing every week.
The sad thing is that all of this nonsense is clouding up the fact that they have a team that I’m willing to bet a lot on to win the championship again this year. Think about it, they have an explosive offense with one of the best receiving corps in football, Travis etienne who needs no explanation, AND Trevor Lawrence.
As for their defense, the Clemson defense has looked like world beaters this year and may be the most underrated defense in the country. Also, Virginia is a decent team but they are powered by a quarterback who literally can’t throw the football. It’s incredibly bad, and will look even worse in Charlotte.
As for the trends, it is not all one-sided, but Clemson reigns supreme. Virginia is a noble 4-2 ATS in their last six games, but Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their last seven (and that is neglecting to mention the fact that most of those wins ATS haven’t been close at all).
Mix this with the aforementioned fact that Virginia’s quarterback can’t throw the ball and you have to go with the Tigers.
FINAL BET: CLEMSON -28.5
1 Ohio State vs 8 Wisconsin at Lucas Oil Stadium at 8:00 on FOX
LINE: Ohio State -16.5 – O/U:56
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) December 5, 2019
I have been high on the Buckeyes all year long and for good reason. Sure, they have had some mediocre opposition throughout the year (something that really changed over the past few weeks), but they have dominated every single opponent they have played.
How much domination? Well, how about compiling offensive stats such as 49 points per game and 530 yards per game and complimenting it with a defense that only allows 12 points per game and 230 yards. I’d say that’s pretty dominant.
We all thought similar things about Wisconsin’s early dominance too, but that was before they lost to Illinois and then played Ohio State and got blown out.
The early thoughts though were with good reason, as this is a good Wisconsin team. They average over 35 points per game and around 440 yards per game. Not bad stuff at all. And on defense they have allowed less than 14 points per game and only 275 yards per game. Had I not just listed Ohio State’s stats on the matter that would’ve looked extremely dominant. Unfortunately the stats just favor the Buckeyes, sorry Badgers fans.
The trends in this one also favors the Buckeyes as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games (and would be 10-1 if it wasn’t for Justin Fields and JK Dobbins fumbling a BILLION times against Penn State). Wisconsin on the other hand is only 2-4 ATS in their last six games. All things are looking up for the Bucks, gotta roll with them.
FINAL BET: OHIO STATE -16.5
And there you have it, the bittersweet feeling of the season coming to a close. Sure, you get to see some electric games and then it’s on to the bowl season, but it also means that feeling of sorrow and of loss at the fact football will soon be over, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
As always best of luck to your teams and your wallets, and Go Dawgs!